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02/01/2012 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trying to win their first conference game as a member of the Mountain West, the Boise State Broncos face one of their toughest tests yet as they tangle with 17th-ranked San Diego State at Viejas Arena tonight.
Boise State, which has lost all five MWC games thus far, has fallen in six straight games overall and won just twice in the last 10 outings. Over the weekend, the team was pitted against Wyoming at home and failed to take advantage of the favorable surroundings in a 75-64 setback. Since starting the 2011-12 campaign with eight wins over nine games, the team has won just twice.
As for the Aztecs, they suffered their first setback in nearly two months on Saturday when they were stunned by an up-and-coming Colorado State squad in a 77-60 final at Moby Arena in Fort Collins. The defeat snapped an 11-game win streak during which SDSU took down UNLV in a battle between nationally-ranked MWC members back on January 14. Now 4-1 in conference, the Aztecs enter play on Wednesday tied with the Runnin' Rebels for first place in the standings.
This is just the second meeting ever between these two teams, which makes sense since Boise State is the latest edition to the MWC. The only other clash took place during the Bicentennial when the Aztecs picked up a 78-68 win at Peterson Gym.
Boise State fell behind early against the Cowboys at home over the weekend, making just seven field goals and shooting 2-of-10 behind the three-point line in the first half, so by the time the Broncos connected on 55.6 percent from the floor in the second half it was too late. Not a single starter scored in double figures for the hosts, instead it was Joe Hanstad who tallied 13 points off the bench, followed by fellow reserves Ryan Watkins and Tre' Nichols with 12 and 11 points, respectively. The loss of Jeff Elorriaga with a broken thumb certainly doesn't help the BSU cause as the team tries to find the mystery behind winning in the MWC. Before bowing out Elorriaga was the top scorer for the Broncos in conference with his 9.3 ppg, now that falls to Westly Perryman who is posting 9.0 ppg as he shoots 40.5 percent from the field. As a group, Boise State is converting just 38.5 percent from the floor and scoring 60.4 ppg versus the new set of conference foes.
Against the Aztecs on Saturday, Colorado needed more than just a little luck to handle one of the most successful teams in college basketball the last two seasons, and the Rams got it as they nailed all 23 of their free-throw attempts to set a new conference record. Over on the other side, SDSU missed just three of its 20 free-throw tries and forced 17 turnovers, but that simply didn't cut it. Jamaal Franklin tried to keep the visitors in the mix with his 24 points and 10 rebounds, while Xavier Thames and Chase Tapley both added 10 points in the losing cause. Overall this season, the Aztecs are scoring a modest 72.2 ppg, 10.8 ppg more than the competition, but when it comes to conference games the points become slightly more scarce for SDSU which is producing only 62.6 ppg in those outings. Still, the defense is holding MWC opponents to just 60.0 ppg, but the margin for error is far too small. Jamaal Franklin accounts for 17.2 ppg in those outings and is also first on the glass with better than nine rebounds per game, but those pesky Mountain West opponents are beating San Diego State on the glass by almost four per game.
<< Hoosiers and Wolverines meet in Big Ten showdown
Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of ranked foes in the Big Ten
Conference square off in Ann Arbor this evening, as No. 20 Indiana comes
calling on No. 23 Michigan.
Indiana started the season impressively, jumping out to a 12-0 record
<< Feathers are sure to fly in clash between Redbirds and Bluejays
Omaha, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th-ranked Creighton Bluejays continue one
of their most memorable seasons ever, as they play host to the Illinois State
Redbirds tonight in Omaha in Missouri Valley Conference action.
Illinois State is 14-8
<< Georgia Tech hits road to tangle with No. 21 Florida State
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the ACC
standings meet in Tallahassee tonight, as the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
challenge the 21st-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
Georgia Tech's first season under head coac
<< Jayhawks host Sooners in Big 12 affair
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off their first Big 12 loss of the
season, the eighth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks return to the friendly confines of
the Allen Fieldhouse for a league bout with the Oklahoma Sooners.
Bill Self's Jayhawks had
Nets pick up G Bogans >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seeking to bolster its defensive
performance, the New Jersey Nets signed 6-foot-5 free agent guard Keith Bogans
on Wednesday.
Per team policy, contract terms were not disclosed.
"Keith will
Hannover's Pogatetz hit with three-match ban >>
Hannover, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hannover defender Emanuel Pogatetz has
been handed a three-match ban by the German Football Federation (DFB) for
punching Nurnberg's Philipp Wollscheid.
The incident occurred in last Friday's 1-
No arguing with Patriots' (tight) end results >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the 2007 NFL season, the New England Patriots reached the
Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinarily explosive offense that
contained a record-setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches
and another wi
Isles center Tavares named top NHL player for January >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Islanders center John Tavares has
been named the NHL's First Star for the month of January.
Tavares led the league in points last month with nine goals and 13 assists
while registering a plu
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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