Canada following a path to gold

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Team Canada's quest for gold at the World Junior Baseball Championship nearly took a detour down a dangerous road.

Luckily for them, Dalton Pompey knows his way around a diamond.

Pompey came off the bench to go 1-for-3 with two RBI including the game-winning hit in the bottom of the ninth that capped a dramatic comeback by Canada to defeat the Czech Republic 8-7 and advance to the quarterfinals against Italy on Friday.

"Never in doubt," said coach Greg Hamilton after his team avoided a first-round matchup with Chinese Taipei. "Those are the ones that you fear, you really do.

"They're the games that you have to win, that you should win."

And in the end they did, climbing back from a four-run deficit in the sixth to win Pool B in the final game of round robin play in front of a raucous crowd at Port Arthur Stadium.

Pompey, banged up after sliding into second base on Wednesday against Panama, showed no ill effects of the injury after roping a liner into center to score Philip Diedrick and sending the sell-out crowd into a frenzy.

"We had a bullet that we used," Hamilton said in reference to his center fielder. "I was hoping we could use it a little earlier but we'll take it at anytime."

With a crowd of nearly 3,000 fans on hand in support of the host country, few expected the Canadians to have to fight their way back against a winless Czech Republic team.

As it happened, the Thunder Bay faithful were treated to an early taste of the type of playoff atmosphere expected to sweep the city and Port Arthur Stadium when the medal round begins on Friday.

By beating the Czechs and coupled with the Netherlands' improbable come-from- behind win over Cuba, Canada's path to the championship has become much clearer - and perhaps, a little easier.

With coaches and players preaching nothing is a given in a tournament such as this, the fact Canada can now navigate its way to the final without facing two- time defending champion South Korea, Team USA or Cuba has to bode well for a country that has won gold just once in the history of the event.

After beating the Koreans in group play and hanging in tight with the Cubans, Canada has shown its ability to contend with the tournament's incumbent powerhouses.

But Hamilton's not biting as his team prepares to play an Italian squad with nothing to lose and everything to gain against the heavily-favored Canadians.

"You can't take anything for granted," Hamilton said. "We're in a quarterfinal game with a team that's playing with house money.

"If you don't come out ready, you can lose in any given night."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.