07/03/2009 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rob Johnson went 3-for-5 with three doubles, including a two-run double in the top of the 11th, to lift the Seattle Mariners past the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, 7-6, in the opener of a three-game set at Fenway Park.
Ramon Ramirez (5-3), who took over on the mound for Boston in the top of the 11th, gave up a single to Franklin Gutierrez and walked Ryan Langerhans to put men on first and second. Chris Woodward moved the runners up a base with a sacrifice bunt. Johnson then stepped to the plate and laced the eventual game- winning hit down the right-field line.
Mark Lowe came on for the M's in the bottom half and made things interesting when he gave up a two-out solo homer to George Kottaras -- the first of his career. J.D. Drew then singled to right, but Lowe got Dustin Pedroia to ground into a fielder's choice to pick up his first save of the season.
Ronny Cedeno went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run for the Mariners, who have won four of six. Jose Lopez went 3-for-5 with a solo homer and a double for Seattle, which improved to 4-3 on a nine-game road trip. Langerhans had a pair of doubles and scored twice.
Felix Hernandez was strong in seven frames, remaining unbeaten in his last eight starts, allowing three runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts and two walks to take the no-decision for the Mariners. Chris Jakubauskas (5-5) tossed a scoreless ninth and 10th to collect the win.
Nick Green had a pair of doubles, including a two-run hit in the bottom of the eighth to tie the tilt, for the Red Sox, who have alternated wins and losses in their last six games. Drew added a solo homer for Boston, which started a 10-game homestand on Friday.
Tim Wakefield went eight frames, giving up five runs on 10 hits with three strikeouts to take the no-decision for the Red Sox. Wakefield made the 383rd start of his Boston career on Friday, passing Roger Clemens for the most in club history.
Ahead, 5-3, the M's sent Sean White to the mound to begin the bottom of the eighth, but he quickly ran into trouble. After getting David Ortiz to fly out, White walked Jason Bay and gave up a single to Mark Kotsay to put men on first and second. Shawn Kelley, who was activated from the 15-day DL on Friday, then took over on the bump and got Jacoby Ellsbury to fly out, but Green stepped to the plate and stroked a two-run double off the top of the Green Monster to tie the contest at five.
Manny Delcarmen retired Seattle in order in the top of the ninth, while Jakubauskas retired the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the bottom of the inning to send the game into extra frames.
The Red Sox drew first blood with a pair of runs in the first inning. Pedroia singled, and Ortiz walked to put men on first and second with two outs. Bay then stroked an RBI ground-rule double to right field. With Kotsay batting, Ortiz crossed the plate on a wild pitch from Hernandez for an early two-run cushion.
Seattle scored a run in the third to cut the deficit in half. Johnson doubled off the Green Monster, advanced to third on Ichiro Suzuki's single and scored on Russell Branyan's single to right.
The Mariners plated three runs in the fourth to take a 4-2 lead. Langerhans started things with a one-out double to center and scored two batters later when Johnson doubled off the Green Monster. Cedeno then stepped to the plate and drove a Wakefield offering over the wall in center.
Boston put men on second and third with two outs in the sixth, but Hernandez struck out Green looking to end the threat.
Drew's solo shot to center in the seventh brought the Red Sox within one, 4-3, but Lopez started the eighth with a homer over the Green Monster to restore Seattle's two run lead.
Game Notes
To make room on the roster for Kelley, the Mariners optioned infielder Mike Carp to Triple-A Tacoma on Friday...Seattle won two of three games from the Red Sox at Safeco Field from May 15-17 but are just 6-17 over their last 23 visits to Fenway Park. Seattle has not taken a series in Boston since winning two of three tests from August 14-16, 2001...Boston owns a league-best 35-11 mark at home this year.
<< White Sox stay hot, upend Greinke's Royals
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Danks was dominant in 7 1/3 shutout
innings, as the red-hot Chicago White Sox extended their season-best winning
streak to seven games with a 5-0 blanking of the Kansas City Royals.
Danks (7-6) h
<< Choo and Tribe pound A's
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shin-Soo Choo went 4-for-5 with two homers,
a career-high seven runs batted in and scored four times, as the Cleveland
Indians crushed the Oakland Athletics, 15-3, in the opener of a three-game
series
<< Bottom feeders, L.A., N.E. aim to gain ground
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two Major League Soccer clubs stuck in the
bottom third of their respective conference tables square off on Saturday when
the Los Angeles Galaxy host the New England Revolution at The Home Depot
Center.
<< Braves hold on to beat Nationals, extend win streak to five
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Conrad's first home run of his career
was a pinch-hit, three-run shot to help the Atlanta Braves take a 9-8 win over
the Washington Nationals in the opener of a three-game set.
Chipper Jones, Yunel Es
Rockies blank Diamondbacks >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jorge De La Rosa blanked the Diamondbacks
through eight innings, and Joel Peralta and Huston Street finished off
Colorado's 5-0 shutout of its NL West rival.
De La Rosa (5-7) won his third straig
Rangers get just enough offense to top Rays >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hank Blalock belted a two-run homer and
Tommy Hunter pitched 5 1/3 strong innings to collect his first win in the
majors on his 23rd birthday, as the Texas Rangers downed the Tampa Bay Rays,
3-1, in
Bowyer wins crash-filled Nationwide race at Daytona >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clint Bowyer held off Kyle Busch and Carl
Edwards in a green-white-checkered finish to win Friday's Subway Jalapeno 250
and record his first victory at Daytona International Speedway.
Bowyer, the 2008
Late miscue forces 'Quakes to share points with RSL >>
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake
battled to a 1-1 draw in Major League Soccer action at Rio Tinto Stadium on
Friday night.
Arturo Alvarez scored the game's first goal for San Jose before a Chr
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game’s outcome (also called betting the side). College Football Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up. ( See our article detailing how and why point spreads are made)
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR. ( More details on playing the Money Line)
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under . So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.
Sports gambling doesn’t end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year’s Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl odds might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.
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